Dangers of Euro Exit or Devaluation
Sep 18
The European Union, comprised of 27 member states, may be considered together to represent an economy larger than the United States. Globally the European Union represents about 20% of the global economy (based on the CIA World Factbook). Over the last decade and a half, 17 of those member states have adopted the Euro, a common currency intended to make commerce between member states and global partners easier. The countries that have adopted the Euro are sometimes referred to as the Eurozone or Euro area. The four largest countries to adopt the Euro are Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Together they account for 76.6% of the GDP among the Euro member states. Other countries that have adopted the Euro range in size from the Netherlands on the higher end to Malta on the lower end. In terms of languages and cultures, there is a large diversity. In matters of perceived power distance and individualism, there are significant differences between member states in the Eurozone. These differences factor in to various aspects of risk, including risk of Euro abandonment and devaluation risk. Power distance and individualism have a significant impact on the political process and the social circumstances that influence currency decisions within a country. Specifically, these can range from austerity measures imposed for financial assistance to political ideology that shapes negotiations. The impact of any country moving away from the Euro could range from disruptive to catastrophic. The magnitude of that range is expected to be proportional to the size of the economy that leaves. This means that a larger economy, like Germany, would have a more profound impact, while a smaller economy, like Malta, would have a lesser impact. However, even a smaller economy exiting the Euro, like Malta or Greece, could have a destabilizing effect far more significant than their proportional representation within the Euro. The two scenarios under which this might happen include a country electing to leave the Euro and the EU member states ejecting a country from the Euro. There are various ways that this could happen, the most probable relating to politics and social pressures. Devaluation of the Euro, also referred to as the collapse of the Euro, due to unchecked debt and general default...
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